2026 Market Forecasts and What They Mean for Your Business

With the New Year officially here, a clear theme has emerged across housing market forecasts: 2026 is expected to bring stability and normalization, rather than a sharp rebound. This shift will deliver plenty of opportunities for industry professionals, but only for those willing to adjust expectations and meet a market that’s becoming more balanced.

Detailed here are prognoses for mortgage interest rates, housing inventory and home prices/sales, as well as tips to help you achieve success in the coming year.

Fannie Mae’s September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook projects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to fall to 5.9% by the close of 2026. Meanwhile, at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2025 Annual Convention & Expo, MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said rates are likely to hover between 6% and 6.5% this year.

Lower, more stable rates typically drive increased purchase activity, which means a meaningful lift in mortgage originations. They also create renewed refinance opportunities for homeowners looking to reduce monthly payments or shorten loan terms.

Tips for 2026 success

• Fine-tune your pre-approval process: As buyer activity increases, fast turn times and clean pipelines will be critical.
• Reconnect with past clients: Falling rates offer a natural reason to reach out—whether to revisit homeownership or start a refinance conversation.
• Educate with confidence: Share clear, upbeat educational content through social posts, short videos and email tips. Focus on showing what lower rates mean for monthly budgets.

According to Realtor.com®’s most recent Monthly Housing Market Trends Report, active listings rose 12.6% year over year, marking the 24^th consecutive month of inventory gains. However, listing growth has slowed over the past six months, signaling a plateau in the post-pandemic inventory recovery. (Active listings were up as much as 31.5% year over year in May.)

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), expects inventory to continue rising in 2026, helping the market move toward better balance. Yet, she cautions that affordability will remain the top challenge. “Even with more homes available,” Evangelou noted, “many are still priced out of reach for the typical buyer, which continues to limit overall activity.”

Tips for 2026 success

• Highlight inventory gains while addressing affordability: Help buyers focus on realistic price points and monthly payments.
• Re-engage sidelined buyers; Clients who paused their search in 2024–2025 may be ready to reenter with more options available.
• Elevate listing strategies: More inventory means more competition. Sharper pricing, refreshed photography and creative financing solutions will matter more than ever.

After sharp gains in recent years, home price appreciation is expected to moderate throughout 2026. Some metros in the South and Southwest may even see modest declines as conditions shift toward buyer-friendly territory.

A recent U.S. News & World Report analysis forecasts home prices to rise at or slightly above the rate of inflation through 2030—an estimated increase of roughly 10% to 11%. NAR projects prices will climb about 4% this year, supported by steady job growth and ongoing supply constraints.

Tips for 2026 success

• Set realistic expectations for buyers: Slower price growth reduces urgency and creates time for more thoughtful decision-making.
• Guide sellers on smart pricing: The days of “list it high and hope” are over. Data-driven pricing will be essential to manage days on market and protect sale prices.
• Be the steady voice of context: As appreciation cools, consumers may feel uncertain. Clear, calm explanations will help you build trust and credibility.

The industry may finally see a long-awaited rebound in 2026. Speaking at NAR NXT, The REALTORS® Experience, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projected a 14% increase in existing home sales this year, along with a 5% rise in new home sales.

“This year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said. “Mortgage applications have been consistently above last year, suggesting that buyer interest has remained strong.”

Tips for 2026 success

• Ramp up lead nurturing now: Professionals with warm, engaged pipelines will be best positioned as sales activity accelerates.
• Strengthen builder relationships: Rising new-home sales could create added opportunities for loan officers and agents aligned with builders.
• Stay consistently visible: Weekly market updates, client “wins” and testimonials and educational content keep your name top of mind when buyers and sellers are ready to act.

Another encouraging sign for 2026 market activity is the gradual fading of the mortgage rate lock-in effect. As of Q4 2025, the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages was 4.4%—the same level seen at the end of 2019. Nearly 20% of mortgages now carry rates above 6%, and that share continues to grow with every new home purchase.

As a result, fewer homeowners feel “stuck” in place, making them more open to moving, trading up, or re-entering the market. This shift removes one of the biggest constraints on housing supply and mobility, setting the stage for a boost in transaction volume.

Tips for 2026 success

• Reframe the move-up conversation: Homeowners with rates closer to today’s market are far less anchored than ultra-low-rate borrowers. Moves center around lifestyle needs, equity growth, and long-term plans—not just rate comparisons.
• Target high-rate homeowners strategically: Owners with rates above 6% may be strong candidates for refinancing, downsizing or relocating as affordability dynamics improve.
• Normalize today’s rates with historical context: Reminding clients that average mortgage rates are back to pre-pandemic norms helps reduce psychological resistance and builds confidence.
• Collaborate on “milestone” marketing: Collaborate with agents to create content focused on job changes, family growth, or relocation—scenarios where rate lock-in matters less than timing and opportunity.

The U.S. housing market doesn’t need a miracle—it needs momentum, and it’s already building. Rates are stabilizing, inventory is increasing and affordability is gradually improving. Industry professionals that stay proactive, remain visible and educate clients will be the ones who thrive in 2026.

Here’s to much success in the New Year.